Do ICE arrest numbers align with Trump's mass deportation plans?
(NewsNation) — Federal immigration officials boast migrant arrests made by Immigration and Customs Enforcement have jumped more than 600% under President Donald Trump, but agency data indicates that enforcement of the administration’s overall immigration mission may not be as impressive as published numbers suggest.
Trump border czar Tom Homan insists the administration’s mass deportation effort is targeting “the worst of the worst.” But of the nearly 21,000 migrants that were in ICE custody in February, just more than half had previous convictions, and many others were charged with immigration-related offenses that often do not result in removal from the United States.
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem remained focused on the more than 20,000 migrant arrests ICE has made under Trump, which she said jumped 627% from the number of “at-large” arrests made by the agency in all of 2024 under former President Joe Biden’s watch.
Noem claims that Trump’s border agenda is “saving lives every day because of the actions we are taking to secure the border and deport illegal alien criminals.”
But a Migration Policy Institute analyst noted that Noem’s calculations of the 627% jump included only about 30% of the 113,000 arrests that ICE made in 2024, which the MPI expert said significantly shrinks the gap between ICE arrests under Trump and Biden.
A former ICE official claims such formulas highlight how the Trump administration is selectively using data to create a narrative about the federal agency’s daily work.
Jason Houser, the ICE chief of staff between 2021 and 2023, told NewsNation that the “politicization and the mass media consumption of typical ICE work” is part of the biggest shift in ICE’s new mission. Houser said ICE agents previously did their jobs quietly rather than having raids promoted on social media with Homan, Noem and celebrities like Phil McGraw in toe.
Now, “It’s all about the volume,” Houser said, adding, “Arrests don’t equate to detained.”
What migrants is ICE targeting for arrest?
The nearly 20,820 migrants held by ICE in February represent about half of the 43,759 detainees in federal custody. Of those being detained by ICE and Customs and Border Protection, 52.1% do not have a criminal record, according to data released by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse.
ICE data shows that about 23,000 arrests have been made by the agency’s immigration officers since Trump’s second term began. However, many of those being taken into custody are released because federal detention centers are at near capacity, Houser said. As ICE data shows, many of those in custody either have criminal charges pending (32%) or face “other immigration” offenses.
However, for every bed being filled by someone who may not be facing deportation, Houser said, “a criminal is not in (a bed).”
In recent weeks, NewsNation reached out to ICE with multiple requests for comment, seeking clarification of its data and which ICE detainees are scheduled for deportation.
A spokesman responded Thursday, saying that since Jan. 20, ICE has “significantly increased” its immigration enforcement activities with additional federal agencies. To keep Americans informed of federal efforts accurately, the spokesman said, “ICE is compiling and validating the data.”
He added that moving forward, the agency will publish data monthly rather than quarterly, as has been ICE’s practice.
What migrants are being held in ICE custody?
As federal officials seek more detention space for migrant detainees, including at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, Homan told The New York Times he could not predict the number of migrants who would be deported this year. Homan has said in other interviews that Congress needs to provide more funding to the mass deportation effort and bolster federal immigration enforcement agency budgets.
“The more money you have, the more successful we’re going to be,” Homan said.
As Homan waits for congressional funding, however, the administration has limited the information it releases, including to NewsNation. The agency stopped publishing daily arrest numbers under Homan’s concerns that it alerted criminal migrants where ICE may be striking next.
Yet other former immigration agents suggest that too much media attention is being given to arrest numbers rather than the bigger mission of removing criminal migrants.
The immigration system is broken into criminal and civil administrative categories, the latter of which is often largely ignored, former Homeland Security Investigations Special Agent Victor Avila said.
In many cases, migrants who enter the country illegally and do not present themselves to border officials are charged with a misdemeanor offense. However, once they are deported and reenter the country, they face up to two years in prison as a second illegal entry pushes the offense to a felony, Avila said.
But the former HSI agent warns that just because migrants haven’t been charged with crimes like rape or murder doesn’t meant they do not pose a threat.
“They’re committing the crime, but they haven’t committed a crime that the public can see,” Avila told NewsNation, including offenses such as using false documentation and identification cards to allow migrants to avoid law enforcement.
He said that although migrants, including those who overstay their visas or ignore orders to leave the country, fall into the “noncriminal” category, that does not mean they will face a different fate than those who get more of the national spotlight.
Avila said that’s where Trump’s stern approach to border security is changing the narrative of ICE’s directives.
“That’s the difference,” Avila said. “(ICE is) not going to look the other way the way the Biden administration did and gave them a pass for being here illegally.”
That’s the approach being taken by Noem, who was recently part of an ICE raid in Northern Virginia. In a social media post that included video of Noem dressed in tactical gear surrounded by agents, she wrote, “If you come to this country and break our laws, we’ll hunt you down.”
