31 housing markets where home prices are falling
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National home prices have risen by 2.6% year-over-year from January 2024 to January 2025, according to the Zillow Home Value Index, a slightly decelerated rate from the 4.6% year-over-year rate last spring. However, not every housing market is seeing rising home prices. Among the 300 largest metro area housing markets, 31 markets are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis.
While home prices continue to rise in regions with tight inventory—such as much of the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern California—some housing markets in states like Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, where inventory has now surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels, are experiencing modest price corrections.
These year-over-year declines are evident in major metros such as Austin (-3.4%); Tampa (-2.8%); San Antonio (-1.8%); New Orleans (-1.1%); Jacksonville, Florida (-0.9%); Phoenix (-0.8%); Dallas (-0.7%); and Orlando (-0.6%).]
The markets seeing the most softness, where homebuyers are gaining leverage, are primarily located in Sun Belt regions, particularly the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. These areas saw major price surges during the pandemic housing boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices.
This softening trend is further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. Some buyers, who would have previously considered existing homes, are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals.
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Will this softening continue this year? A key indicator to watch will be active inventory levels. If weaker markets like Tampa continue to see substantial increases in active inventory—already above pre-pandemic levels—it may signal ongoing softening, potentially creating more opportunities for homebuyers.
